A snowstorm is coming, but its impacts to the East Coast still remain highly uncertain just a few days before the event.
"An East Coast storm could develop as soon as Sunday Feb. 22, but the track of this potential nor'easter isn't yet determined, leaving impacts such as snow, rain, wind and coastal flooding uncertain from New England to the mid-Atlantic states," saidWeather.com meteorologist Jonathan Erdman in an online forecast.
Another forecaster, AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter, told USA TODAY Feb. 19 that "there's going to be a big storm, but it could be just off the Atlantic coast." He said a slight shift to the west will result in higher snow totals, but a slight shift to the east means lower snow totals.
Uncertainty isn't unusual
Porter said this level of uncertainty just a few days before a storm isn't unusual. "This is a pretty typical snow threat for the eastern U.S."
One reason for the uncertainty, he said, is that part of the energy that will fuel the storm is still off the California coast. He said once that energy comes onshore in the next day or so, it will be better sampled by the National Weather Service's balloon network. This will give better data for the computer weather models to digest.
"Small details will matter in determining the final outcome of the storm," he said.
Jose Castillo of Tarrytown, NY. walks through
snow along Route 9 in Tarrytown during the early hours of the winter storm Jan. 25, 2026. The storm was predicted to drop up to a foot of snow on the lower Hudson Valley. A huge winter storm dumped heavy amounts of snow and ice across wide swaths of the U.S." style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" />
See fun faces of people making the best of winter weather
Jose Castillo of Tarrytown, NY. walks throughsnowalong Route 9 in Tarrytown during the early hours of the winter storm Jan. 25, 2026. The storm was predicted to drop up to a foot of snow on the lower Hudson Valley. A huge winter storm dumped heavy amounts of snow and ice across wide swaths of the U.S.
Subtle changes in track mean drastic changes to impacts
Theweather service confirmswhat the private forecasters say: "There remains a strong potential for a coastal low by Sunday [Feb. 22] and early Monday [Feb. 23] for the East Coast, but the track of the low remains uncertain. A track closer to the coast would result in heavy coastal rain and inland snow from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, and strong winds near the coast with the potential for coastal flooding."
However, the weather service said a more offshore track would mean less inland precipitation and wind, and the heaviest precipitation near the Delmarva Peninsula and extending to eastern North Carolina.
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"Both scenarios remain equally plausible at this point, but potential remains for some possible impactful snow somewhere near the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. This will continue to be monitored closely as even subtle changes in track could mean more drastic changes to impacts," the weather service said in anonline forecast discussion.
A National Weather Service forecast issued on Feb. 19 for Saturday, Feb. 21, through Sunday, Feb. 22, shows the potential for rain, mixed precipitation or snow from Texas to New England. Meanwhile, forecasts for Monday, Feb. 23, show a chance of snow throughout the Northeast.
Dueling models
Two of the main weather models that forecasters use to predict weather − colloquially known as the American and the European models − can't seem to agree on the forecast. The American "GFS" model still shows a big storm for the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with 2 to 3 feet or more of snowfall, which is "unbelievable," said Weather Trader meteorologist Ryan Maue in an email to USA TODAY.
However, he said the European (ECMWF) weather model "is still NOT interested in the coastal storm having major impacts to the Mid-Atlantic or the Northeast. We're currently in the 2 inches to 4 inches category as the highest probability outcome," according to the European model, Maue said.
AccuWeather agrees with the Euro model, and as of Feb. 19 is calling for 1-3 inches of snow in Philadelphia and New York City, and 2-4 inches in Boston.
The weather service, pointing out the differences between the models, summed it up this way: "This continues to be a low-confidence forecast at this time as it pertains to extent of wintry weather and coastal winds."
AccuWeather's Porter said "we'll know more in the next 24 hours."
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:Weekend nor'easter, snow storm in forecast, but there's a catch
A snowstorm is coming, but its impacts to the East Coast still remain highly uncertain just a few days before the event....
